Susceptibility of active-layer detachment failures and vulnerability of infrastructure in Alaska and northwestern Canada

Abstract Ongoing climate change is critically endangering cold regions, with the Arctic warming at nearly four times the global average. This rapid warming is not only accelerating the irreversible thawing of permafrost but is also reshaping the region’s topography, vegetation, hydrology, infrastructure integrity, and carbon exchange. The destabilization of the ground through thaw of ice-rich permafrost, known as thermokarst, is increasing to mass-wasting events such as active-layer detachment failures (ALDs), shallow landslides that are becoming increasingly common in the Arctic. In light of these alarming developments, our study employs the Maxent statistical model to analyze ALD distribution, develop a susceptibility map for Alaska and Northwest Territories, Canada, in the current climate, and assess the potential impact to infrastructure. We identified high-susceptibility zones across critical regions, including the Brooks Range, Franklin Mountains, and West Crazy Mountains in Alaska, as well as the Dawson City and Mackenzie River areas in Canada. Particularly concerning is the vulnerability of linear infrastructure: 878 km of roads, 167 km of the Trans-Alaska pipeline, and 140 km of the Norman Wells pipeline are situated in areas of high to very high susceptibility to ALDs. These results highlight the urgent need for proactive strategies and infrastructure planning to deal with the growing threats from permafrost thaw and its wide-ranging effects.