THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON THE LIVELIHOODS OF AGRICULTURAL COMMUNITY; THE CASE OF BULE HORAWOREDA OROMIA REGION, ETHIOPIA

ABSTACT Ethiopia is heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture, and its geographical location and topography in combination with low copying strategy capacity entail a high variability of the sector to adverse impacts of climate change and variability. Understanding local scale behavior of climate elements and existing adaptive response by smallholder farmers is important to design locally specific copying strategy interventions for the sector. Thus, this study was intended to investigate smallholder farmers’ perception and check its alignment with observed changes in climate, then to identify their ongoing copying strategies, and barriers to copying in Bule Hora Woreda. In order to explore farmers’ perceptions on climate variability and change as well as their copying strategies and constraints, 100 farm households were interviewed. Besides, focus group discussion and key informant interview were utilized to triangulate and substantiate the findings from household survey. These data were analyzed using descriptive statistics (such as mean, SD, frequency) and inferential statistics (one-way ANOVA and Chi-square test). Moreover, monthly rainfall and temperature data of Bule Hora station were obtained from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia over the period of 1975-2013 G.C to analyze observed trend and variability of climate in the area. Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to detect the trend and its magnitude; and Coefficient of Variation was used as descriptor of rainfall variability. The results indicated that the amount of annual and Belg season rainfall has showed a significant declining trend while temperature (both mean annual maximum and minimum) has showed significant increasing trend over the study period. However, Kiremt season rainfall trend showed a non-significant declining trend. In comparison, the Belg season had more variable rainfall pattern and it was getting hotter at higher rate than Kiremt season. The majority of smallholder farmers had also perceived a declining trend in annual and seasonal rainfall totals and increasing trends of temperature. In response they were practicing diverse copying strategies such as soil and water conservation practices, changing crop variety, adjusting planting date, expansion of perennial crops, crop diversification, livestock management, and income diversification. However, despite having perceived changes in temperature and rainfall, a considerable percentage of farmers did not make any adjustments to their livelihood practices. The major barriers cited by these farmers were financial constraints, water scarcity, lack of information and knowledge, lack of farm inputs, shortage of land and labor. The results suggest the need for designing appropriate water management strategies to offset the negative impacts of the changing pattern of rainfall and temperature especially during Belg season; and also introducing and promoting appropriate livelihood diversification strategies in the study area.