ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND TREND IN AMBASEL WOREDA, NORTH EAST HIGHLANDS OF ETHIOPIA

ABSTRACT The purpose of the study was to provide scientifically investigated information about variability and trends rainfall and its impacts seen in Ambassel Woreda. To ensure such a purpose, the study has employed a descriptive survey research design and a mixed research approach. From a target population, a sample of 123 household heads were selected by stratified systematic random sampling, 10 development agents and woreda experts were selected by purposive sampling. Both quantitative and qualitative primary data were collected by using a mixed questionnaire, semi-structured interview and focus group discussion; whereas, the long-term rainfall data (1989-2020) was organized through document analysis. The quantitative data was descriptively analyzed for frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index and pelvimetric coefficient and inferentially analyzed for Mann-Kendall test at 5% level of significance. Whereas, the qualitative data was analyzed by using narration and quotation. The results obtained reveal a moderate annual rainfall variability and irregularity; the Kiremt season that contributed nearly 50% of the annual rainfall has showed a moderate inter-seasonal variability; the Tseday and Belg seasons which both together contributed more than 40% of the annual rainfall have showed a very high rainfall variability and irregularity. A high rainfall variability is also seen in all months in the study area. Concerning the trend of rainfall variability, the annual as well as the Belg and kiremt seasons have showed a statistically significant negative trend; Whereas, the Tseday season has showed a statistically significant positive trend and the Bega season has showed a positive trend but statistically insignificant. The perception of farmers also underlined poor distribution of rainfall, early cessation and late onset of rainfall that has been insufficient for crop production. This indicates a need for the implementation of different strategies in communities across the woreda to effectively manage the consequent future impact of rainfall variability in the area. Finally, to sustain and enhance the livelihoods of farmers, the study recommends an in-depth study on how the rain fed farming system was affected by the high rainfall variability.