Simulation-based analysis of country-specific mitigation strategies to decarbonize the passenger car fleet: A comparison between Germany, Poland, and Norway

This paper investigates and compares transformation pathways to decarbonize the passenger car fleets of Germany, Poland, and Norway, considering the unique market characteristics of these countries. We develop a dynamic stock and flow model to simulate the evolution of the passenger car fleet in conjunction with the energy sector at a country level and calculate tailpipe and life cycle-oriented greenhouse gas emissions. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we analyze country-specific levers to meet tailpipe emissions targets and their impact on life cycle emissions and the energy system. The results reveal that meeting the European tailpipe emission targets is challenging for Germany and Poland, and much easier for Norway. The main drivers are the level and speed of deployment of electric vehicles and renewable electricity, as well as the rate of the fleet renewal. For countries with a high share of conventional vehicles, synthetic fuels could be promising, but with a significant impact on the energy system. Moreover, an exclusive focus on tailpipe emissions does not imply low life cycle emissions and could even lead to burden shifting. Hence, our results further support the idea that mitigation measures need to be orchestrated and harmonized with country-specific characteristics in order to reduce tailpipe and life cycle emissions as much as possible.