Do the ends represent the means? Assessing adaptive capacity determinants against proactive and reactive adaptive actions in a smallholder system

With the introduction of the Global Goal on Adaptation in the Paris Agreement and the mandate to track progress under it, there is an increased demand to assess adaptive capacity to climate and weather risk. In this analysis, we explore how determinants of adaptive capacity relate to proactive and reactive adaptive behaviors. Using a household panel survey in a coffee growing smallholder system in Vietnam, we empirically evaluate three types of adaptive actions: i) response to experienced shock events (reactive), ii) preparation for perceived future shock events (proactive), and iii) adjustment to climate change and slow onset risk (proactive). We find that proactive actions towards shock events (ii) and towards climate change (iii) reflect adaptive capacity theory well— although not identically, while reactive actions towards shocks (i) need more clarification. Our results confirm that key determinants of adaptive capacity do not always lead to increased action, heterogeneously depends on the type of risk and if actions were taken proactively or reactively. The approach allows us to address challenges of conceptual ambiguity—particularly the cyclical nature of determinants and behavior. Our results have implications for designing and monitoring adaptation and development interventions, necessitating a better understanding of the underlying determinants than differentially influence adaptive actions.