Seabed Mining in Africa: A Science-Led Environmental Risk Assessment Framework for Sustainable Ocean Floor Development

This working paper develops the first Pan-African Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) framework for seabed mining, advancing the principle of “Science Before Exploitation” as the guiding compass for sustainable ocean floor governance. Seabed mining has emerged as a new frontier in the global Blue Economy, driven by the demand for critical minerals essential to the energy transition and digital transformation. While Africa’s Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) are increasingly recognized as rich in mineral resources such as Seafloor Massive Sulfides (SMS), cobalt-rich crusts, and polymetallic nodules, the continent lacks a coherent framework for assessing environmental and socio-economic risks associated with such activities. Without precautionary governance, Africa risks biodiversity loss, ecological harm, and extractive dependency. Drawing lessons from Norway’s Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) framework and the International Seabed Authority’s (ISA) draft mining code, this paper proposes an African-tailored ERA model. It emphasizes uncertainty analysis, cumulative impact assessment, and multi-stakeholder integration as foundational principles. It further highlights the strategic role of the Coalition of South-South Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (COSSCCIMA) in mobilizing private sector advocacy, bridging science-policy gaps, and promoting sustainable investment narratives. By situating Africa as not only a participant but a potential rule-shaper in global seabed governance, this work positions African chambers, governments, and research institutions at the forefront of sustainable Blue Economy leadership. It calls for governments, regional blocs, universities, donors, and businesses to align around a Pan-African ERA roadmap, ensuring that the continent safeguards its ocean commons while unlocking responsible prosperity.