МОНЕТАРНА ПОЛІТИКА ТА МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНІ ДЕТЕРМІНАНТИ РИНКУ НЕРУХОМОСТІ: ПІДХІД VAR

In 2024, the Chinese government aimed to optimize real estate policies to reduce sector risks. The State Council emphasized ensuring timely building deliveries and improving the housing supply system. To assess the effectiveness of these policies, this study analyzed time series data from 2006 to 2023, including the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI), per capita disposable income, household leverage ratio, M2 money supply (M2), loan interest rates, and real estate prices. Utilizing the Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model. Key findings include: increased M2 money supply can lower housing prices initially but raises them in the long term; interest rate policies mainly impact the short and medium terms; per capita disposable income positively affects prices short-term, but may have a negative long-term impact; a higher household leverage ratio boosts prices short-term, requiring government controls to avoid a housing bubble; the CPI influences real estate prices cyclically, showing initial rises followed by declines, then stabilization.