Infrastructure resilience forecasting: A holistic resilience assessment framework

In view of the increased frequency and intensity of climate change-induced infrastructure failures there is an urgent need to adapt infrastructure to ensure continuous and reliable service provision. The UK’s vulnerability to climate change is becoming increasingly evident as the replacement and upgrading of economic infrastructure are progressing with a considerably slower pace. Hence, a holistic resilience assessment framework, that addresses the vulnerabilities of infrastructure to the hazards of climate exacerbated shocks and informs adaptation planning, is needed. Inviting feedback from the conference, this paper investigates the challenges involved in establishing a place-based holistic resilience assessment framework, exploring the scope of infrastructure to be included, the need for a benchmark reference point, the indicators and metrics to be utilised, and outcome-driven forecasting output. The paper outlines the development and high-level exploratory testing of a novel framework designed to avoid abstraction and enable place-based resilience forecasting that will inform adaptation processes whilst preventing infrastructure overcapitalisation, resource overconsumption, or maladaptation