Design and Validation of an Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Management Model Based on Investment Portfolio Simulation in the Tehran Stock Exchange Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Methods

In this research, first the financial criteria used in capital decision-making were identified and refined, then the most effective criteria were selected based on the deep learning algorithms including: RF, XGBoost, and LightGBM. In this stage, 11 factors were selected from the 35 factors found in previous research. In the next stage, based on the Forensic-Based Investigation algorithm (FBI), feasible investment options were identified and the internal rate of return was calculated over a 5-year period, and 42 companies that had an internal rate of return higher than the risk-free investment were selected as feasible investment options. During the next stage, different random combinations were used as investment portfolios using three methods: equal weight allocation, mean-variance model, and hierarchical risk preference model. Investment weights were determined for each invested share (combination) and investment returns were evaluated using different metrics. Finally, in order to validate the findings, the feasible investment options were divided into two categories of companies active in the financial industry and others, and the superiority of decision-making (higher returns) in a dynamic process was accepted.