Closing the loops: water - energy - bioeconomy nexus in a systemic framework

Circular Bioeconomy encourages the creation of closed-cycle systems based on biological resources. Whilst the circular bioeconomy concept seeks to limit the overuse of natural resources, its successful implementation is closely tied to resource availability, including water. This thesis explores the nexus between water resources and bioeconomy through a circular and systemic lens. The analysis is grounded in a literature review and two case studies within a portion of the Po River Basin District. The first study explores the cascading impacts of the 2022 drought on major water-use sectors and on the broader socio-environmental system. The propagation of the effects identified is mapped into Causal Loop Diagrams, conceptual models derived from the System Dynamics methodology. Results highlight severe agri-environmental consequences, exacerbated by high temperatures, and amplified energy demand due to more energy-intensive activities, which indicate the water-energy nexus. The study also highlights the critical role of leverage points in complex systems suggesting supply and demand-side management strategies. These include, for instance, a change in crop allocation towards less water-intensive ones. The second study employs an optimization method, based on multicriteria decision analysis, to investigate land allocation decisions. The results show that the elasticity of water demand is influenced by various factors beyond water pricing, like risk behaviour and participation in the bioeconomy. Agents engaged in bioenergy are less sensitive to water price increases, underscoring the risk of both the ineffectiveness of such economic instruments, mandated by the Water Framework Directive, and the potentiality of unsustainable outcomes. This research argues that systemic approaches need to be reflected in the policy domain, moving beyond sectoral policies that can result in controversial effects. In doing so, this thesis calls for a more comprehensive approach in policy design that better aligns with the inherent complexity of circular bioeconomy systems.