Enhancing crop production in the Haihe Basin while addressing challenges related to water quantity and quality

To tackle the challenge of ensuring food security while managing water availability and quality constraints in the Haihe Basin, a critical grain-producing region in China with a dense population and severe water degradation issues, we have developed a comprehensive spatial optimization (CSO) strategy. This approach integrates various crop and soil management practices, land consolidation, and cutting-edge breeding technologies. It also uses a spatial planning model based on linear programming, considering water quantity and quality constraints. Our research shows that crop yields may drop by 14 % (3780 Kt) compared to levels in 2017 due to restrictions on groundwater extraction and nitrogen (N) concentrations in leaching or runoff. However, by strategically maximizing overall crop yields through the integrated CSO strategy without changing the crop production structure, the total crop yield could potentially increase by 81 % (21,817 Kt) while using 3.0 % (86 Kha) less cultivated land than in 2017. This would help to fulfill the projected food demand in 2050. If the integrated aims to minimize the sown area after fulfilling the demand for crops in 2050, around 28 % of the sown area, or 820 Kha cropland, could be reduced compared with 2017. This reduction may save more land for natural conversation. Furthermore, total N losses, including ammonia, nitrous oxide emissions, runoff, and leaching, could be reduced by 23 %–43 % (139–252 Kt), depending on the specific optimization strategy goals. The stepwise integrated optimization strategy provides a feasible framework for the Haihe Basin, enabling the maintenance or even enhancing current crop yields while safeguarding water quality and quantity.