A Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait can Prevent an AMOC Tipping

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the present-day climate, and could potentially collapse under sufficient freshwater or CO2-forcing. While the effect of the Bering Strait on AMOC stability has been well studied, it is unknown whether a constructed closure of this Strait can prevent an AMOC collapse under climate change. Here, we show in an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity that an artificial closure of the Strait can extend the safe carbon budget of the AMOC, provided that the AMOC is strong enough at the closure time. Specifically, for this model, an equilibrium AMOC with a reduction below (6.1+/-0.5)% from pre-industrial has an additional budget up to 500PgC given a sufficiently early closure, while for a weaker AMOC a closure reduces this budget. This indicates that constructing this closure can be a feasible climate intervention strategy to prevent an AMOC collapse.

Publication Details

Journal
arXiv (Cornell University)
Published
2025-08-27
Primary Topic
Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
Type
article
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article

A Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait can Prevent an AMOC Tipping

arXiv (Cornell University)
Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
article

A Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait can Prevent an AMOC Tipping

article en

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the present-day climate, and could potentially collapse under sufficient freshwater or CO2-forcing. While the effect of the Bering Strait on AMOC stability has been well studied, it is unknown whether a constructed closure of this Strait can prevent an AMOC collapse under climate change. Here, we show in an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity that an artificial closure of the Strait can extend the safe carbon budget of the AMOC, provided that the AMOC is strong enough at the closure time. Specifically, for this model, an equilibrium AMOC with a reduction below (6.1+/-0.5)% from pre-industrial has an additional budget up to 500PgC given a sufficiently early closure, while for a weaker AMOC a closure reduces this budget. This indicates that constructing this closure can be a feasible climate intervention strategy to prevent an AMOC collapse.

arXiv (Cornell University)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 60%
Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
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A Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait can Prevent an AMOC Tipping · arXiv (Cornell University) (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS