Prioritizing low-carbon materials and reducing material quantities to mitigate embodied GHG emissions in buildings

• LCAs with Monte Carlo Simulation using EPDs and 172 residential case studies. • Low compliance with regulatory GHGe limits for single-family homes (15%). • Row and multi-family houses are most likely to comply with GHGe limit values. • Prioritizing material quantity cuts embodied GHGe more effectively. • Mineral boards and concrete drive most GHGe and variability. As regulations for buildings become increasingly stringent, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is emerging as a key method of documenting and reducing embodied greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe). Mitigation strategies often focus on optimizing material quantities or substituting conventional materials with low-carbon alternatives. However, these approaches are typically applied in isolation and to specific building components. This study examines which mitigation strategies should be prioritized to reduce embodied GHGe at the whole-building level while ensuring compliance with regulatory limits for new construction in Denmark. Using data from 172 residential buildings and 1054 Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) across 21 material categories, Monte Carlo Simulations were employed to generate LCAs by combining real buildings' material intensity coefficients (MICs) with EPD data. The results indicate a 66% probability of compliance with the regulatory limit values for row houses and 64% for multi-family buildings, but only 15% for single-family homes. Sensitivity analyses across material categories identified key contributors to both total embodied emissions and variability, such as mineral boards and ready-mixed concrete. This highlights areas where mitigation efforts should be concentrated, either by selecting lower-impact materials or by reducing material quantities. The findings suggest that prioritizing reductions in material quantities may be the most effective approach, though low-carbon materials remain a crucial strategy. These results provide valuable insights for making informed material choices early in the design process and offer strategies for improving life cycle embodied GHGe in line with regulatory compliance for building projects.