TERTIARY SCHOOL ENROLMENT IN NIGERIA: ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF COST-OF-LIVING SHOCKS

This study employs the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework to examine the asymmetric effects of cost-of-living shocks on tertiary school enrollment in Nigeria from 1981 to 2024. Drawing on household investment and family stress models, the analysis incorporates both positive and negative cost-of-living shocks alongside other determinants; government education expenditure, secondary school enrollment rates, real GDP per capita, exchange rate movements, and the disruptive effects of Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) strikes. Unit root tests confirm a mix of I (0) and I (1) variables, and bounds testing indicates the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. The results reveal that rising living costs significantly depress tertiary enrollment, while cost-of-living reliefs have a positive but often short-lived effect. Secondary school enrollment strongly promotes tertiary participation, whereas recurrent ASUU strikes and exchange rate volatility exert mixed, lag-dependent effects. Education expenditure shows delayed and inconsistent influence on enrollment. Diagnostic and stability tests confirm the robustness of the model. The findings highlight the need for targeted policies to manage cost-of-living pressures, expand student financial aid, stabilize the macroeconomic environment, and reduce institutional disruptions. By integrating macroeconomic and supply-side factors, this study offers new empirical evidence on the nonlinear dynamics linking household affordability, institutional stability, and higher education participation in Nigeria