Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for Kula Norinska Municipality in Neretva Delta

This deliverable was developed through CLIMAAX project that aims to design a framework and a toolbox for climate risk assessment both at local and regional levels. The very goal is to prepare Europe for climate hazards and to develop adaptation strategies that would help European regions and municipalities to deal with climate change. This document is a climate risk assessment that address climate hazards in the territory of a small rural municipality of Kula Norinska, situated in the Neretva River Delta, in southern part of Croatia. Although small, it is an area of diverse nature resources at the contact of waterless karstic hills, rivers and Mediterranean wetlands. The reader will learn from this deliverable about relevant climate hazards, their geographic dimension and time projection till the end of the century. It also provides us with the knowledge of the main stakeholders involved in the process of climate adaptation on local level. During this initial phase of the project research has been focused on defining the main climate hazards and areas where their impact is the strongest. Another important action was stakeholder analysis that was made to define social groups that may be affected by climate adaptation policies. The main results achieved during this stage of the project are: · recognition and definition of main climate hazards in the municipality: droughts and wildfires analysed on the level of settlements, the basic unit that form the municipality · definition of areas of the municipality that are the most endangered by two climate hazards · definition and analysis of local stakeholders involved in the climate adaptation process showed that although the municipality of Kula Norinska occupies a small area, there are many stakeholders involved in the process: municipal authorities, Hrvatske vode (national public agency in charge of water management), local farmers, tourism operators, fishermen and hunters, NGOs and environmental groups, neighbouring municipalities, scientists · definition of relevant climate hazards based on CLIMAAX methodology · climate risk analysis forecast till the end of the 21st century The CRA constists of five operational steps – Scoping, Risk Exploration, Risk Analysis, Key Risk Assessment and Monitoring & Evaluation – in accordance with CLIMAAX Framework. These results are crucial for next phases of the project because they set the scene for further research and development of the climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies and policies. They also serve to direct the course of the project work in phases yet to come. Climate risk assessment provided researchers with key findings and understanding of the climate hazards related issues in a small rural municipality. It also showed that even such geographically limited territories with extremely small populations may be characterized by very subtle social interrelations that may burden implementation of climate adaptation policies that conflict with concerns of certain stakeholders. The research showed interconnection between droughts and fires, two key hazards in the municipality although they are a result of different mechanisms. While droughts are a result of exclusive climate change mechanism, the first one, fires are a result of combined impact of nature and humans who live in the areas and use local nature resources. The two hazards are also mutually connected since the prolongated droughts make fires more dangerous for local ecosystems and human dwellings and activities.