Shifting Waters: A 41-Year Time-Series Analysis of Surface Water Change in the Prairie Pothole Region

The Prairie Pothole Region (PRR) is a landscape defined by a dynamic surface water system, with wetlands, lakes, and rivers playing critical roles in supporting biodiversity, regulating floods, and maintaining hydrological balance. This study conducts a time-series analysis of surface water change in the PPR from 1984 to 2024, using remote sensing tools including Google Earth Engine, ArcGIS Pro, and ENVI. 41 annual surface water presence rasters were compiled into a cumulative dataset, allowing for both year-to-year comparisons and broader trend analysis. Results indicate that the presence of surface water in the PPR has not followed a simple linear trend. Instead, the region experienced a period of relative stability in the late 1980s and early 1990s, followed by a sharp increase in surface water extent in the early 2010s, coinciding with significant precipitation events. After peaking around 2011, surface water coverage gradually declined, suggesting heightened vulnerability to recent drought conditions. Temporary wetlands demonstrated the highest degree of fluctuation, while lakes and major river systems showed greater persistence but still exhibited measurable variation. The findings highlight the extreme hydrological variability characteristic of the PPR and underscore the challenges of managing interconnected surface water systems under shifting climate conditions. Year-to-year “snapshot” analyses revealed that even permanent features experience notable short-term changes, emphasizing the need for adaptive conservation strategies. This research contributes to a better understanding of long-term surface water dynamics in one of North America’s most ecologically significant and sensitive regions.