Retrieval Capabilities of Large Language Models Scale with Pretraining FLOPs

How does retrieval performance scale with pretraining FLOPs? We benchmark retrieval performance across LLM model sizes from 125 million parameters to 7 billion parameters pretrained on datasets ranging from 1 billion tokens to more than 2 trillion tokens. We find that retrieval performance on zero-shot BEIR tasks predictably scales with LLM size, training duration, and estimated FLOPs. We also show that In-Context Learning scores are strongly correlated with retrieval scores across retrieval tasks. Finally, we highlight the implications this has for the development of LLM-based retrievers.