A law of large numbers for predicting several steps ahead

This note proves a law of large numbers for predicting several steps ahead, which, in the case of uniformly bounded random variables, generalizes the standard law of large numbers for martingales; the standard law of large numbers corresponds to predicting one step ahead. Its main result shows that the law of large numbers holds for predicting $N$ uniformly bounded random variables $o(N)$ steps ahead, but it is much more precise and in some respects optimal. This law of large numbers is applied to a problem of decision making with a bounded loss function limiting the impact of each decision to $o(N)$ steps.

Publication Details

Journal
ArXiv.org
Published
2025-08-24
Primary Topic
Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
Type
article
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article

A law of large numbers for predicting several steps ahead

ArXiv.org
Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
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A law of large numbers for predicting several steps ahead

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Abstract

This note proves a law of large numbers for predicting several steps ahead, which, in the case of uniformly bounded random variables, generalizes the standard law of large numbers for martingales; the standard law of large numbers corresponds to predicting one step ahead. Its main result shows that the law of large numbers holds for predicting $N$ uniformly bounded random variables $o(N)$ steps ahead, but it is much more precise and in some respects optimal. This law of large numbers is applied to a problem of decision making with a bounded loss function limiting the impact of each decision to $o(N)$ steps.

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A law of large numbers for predicting several steps ahead · ArXiv.org (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS