A law of large numbers for predicting several steps ahead
This note proves a law of large numbers for predicting several steps ahead, which, in the case of uniformly bounded random variables, generalizes the standard law of large numbers for martingales; the standard law of large numbers corresponds to predicting one step ahead. Its main result shows that the law of large numbers holds for predicting $N$ uniformly bounded random variables $o(N)$ steps ahead, but it is much more precise and in some respects optimal. This law of large numbers is applied to a problem of decision making with a bounded loss function limiting the impact of each decision to $o(N)$ steps.
Publication Details
- Journal
- ArXiv.org
- Published
- 2025-08-24
- Primary Topic
- Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00