Towards a closer European defence? Tensions and possibilities : A narrative analysis of EU proposals for security and defence in a shifting geopolitical landscape

In light of the current security environment, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, rising geopolitical tension and a shift towards less reliance on American security guarantees, the European Commission has released several proposals on how to secure the Union. The White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030 and the Preparedness Union Strategy, focusing on military and civilian aspects of security which can in its totality be seen as a total defence approach, are the main papers under investigation in this paper. This dissertation investigates the stories that the EU institutions tell about the current security situation, how the EU proposes to defend itself, as well as the challenges and tensions that may hinder the implementation of the proposals. The study is conducted using narrative analysis with an ontological security perspective of recent security and defence proposals released by the European Commission and complementary sources. The Commission is telling a story about the EU as a peace project which is threatened by the shifting global context, with Russia’s war in Ukraine and the re-election of President Trump in the US. This security situation demands urgent action to protect the peaceful identity and values of the Union, notably in terms of arms procurement and civilian preparedness initiatives. The narrative is challenged by some member state leaders, who perceive threat differently than the Commission, as well as certain groups in the European Parliament. The implementation of the proposals may then be hindered when voted on in the European Council and European Parliament in summer 2025. Thus, the proposals are challenged by the polarised political landscape in the Union which may lead to the proposals not achieving the intended outcome in terms of security and defence for the EU.