Development Trajectories for Autonomous Electric Trucks : Identifying Important Aspects and Promising Development Paths

The road freight trucking sector is transforming, where autonomous electric trucks (AETs) could fundamentally reshape the industry. While stakeholders have identified short-term objectives and possibilities, a comprehensive understanding of long-term strategic development is lacking. This thesis aims to address this gap by investigating two main aspects to increase the understanding for future development. Firstly, identifying critical factors and capabilities necessary for developing the next generation of AETs, focusing on technological requirements, regulatory compliance, and market positioning. Secondly, develop and present possible development paths for AET deployment over a 2-5 year time horizon, ensuring feasibility and competitiveness. Employing a qualitative methodology encompassing a literature review, industry study, and interviews, the research identified crucial development factors and a novel industry categorization based on environmental complexity, attributes, and stakeholders. Rigid and tractor-trailer form factors emerged as primary differentiators, leading to two distinct development trajectories based on development in operational design domains instead of developing for a specific market as the same operational design domain can exist in different markets. Initial rigid truck deployment is in fenced-off environments, gradually expanding into rural areas. Deployment in urban settings would be the last step, but it is not expected within the time frame. Conversely, tractor-trailers should initially deploy in rural areas, aiming for expansion to highway operations, which is the main goal for this form factor. Finally, progressing towards semi-urban scenarios to increase the use case and enable end-to-end services. Key factors for success include a customer-centric view regarding the choice of sensors, form factor, and data collection to improve autonomous driving system capabilities. Identifying business models that address high upfront costs with operational efficiency is necessary for long-term success. Safety validation and public acceptance are further important to facilitate the deployment process. Reshaping the supply chain and how truck utilization could further disrupt the industry and improve the benefits of AETs. Further research should focus on a smooth and economically viable transition to autonomous freight transport and investigate niche markets. This study provides actionable insights and a clear roadmap for stakeholders seeking to navigate the complex landscape of AET development and deployment.