The Physics of Social Media Economics: Noise vs Coherence

Social media today thrives on maximizing engagement, often by amplifying outrage and distraction. This noise-driven model delivers short-term growth but risks long-term fragility. Using a physics-inspired coherence metric (WCTφ) and standard financial tools (DCF, IRR, NPV), we model user growth, churn, ARPU, and investor returns under two regimes: NoiseDriven (ND) vs Coherence-Driven (CD) social media. Our simulations suggest that ND platforms may enjoy strong early cash flows, but they eventually hit a Red Queen treadmill—continually spending more merely to stand still. In contrast, CD platforms, which invest in high-quality, trust-driven feeds, compound growth sustainably, producing stronger long-run NPVs and lower investor risk. These results are illustrative, not predictive, but they highlight structural flaws in today’s attention economy and a viable alternative