Visualizing the regional risk in raw material supply based on event analysis

Achieving stable and resilient mineral supply requires a good understanding of the diverse risk factors present in various regions, which vary in their severity levels. Conventional criticality assessments typically consider risk factors such as political stability and investment attractiveness using country-level indicators. However, there are severe risk factors that have yet to be incorporated due to the lack of data and methodology to evaluate them. This study quantifies country-specific risks of new risk domains such as natural disasters, accidents, and labor strikes through a meta-analysis of historical events. The risk scores for 93 source countries are calculated based on the number of records referring to those events, which were obtained through document investigation using three different approaches to event analysis. Our analysis reveals high risk scores for resource-rich developed countries like Australia and Canada due to the high frequency of events, which suggests a distinct feature of regional risk compared to the conventional domains of supply risk evaluation. This study highlights the significant potential of event analysis to provide evidence for policy design in supply chain risk management. • Broader mineral supply risks were evaluated using historical event data. • Regional risks of natural disasters, accidents and labor strikes were quantified. • Natural disaster risk in Australia and Canada is high unlike conventional risks. • Event analysis supports evidence-based policymaking in resource strategies.