Towards an equitable transition: Renewable energy effect on educational outcomes in Canadian communities

This paper presents the first causal and spatial analysis of how renewable energy deployment influences educational attainment across Canadian communities, with a focus on indigenous populations. While clean energy co-benefits are gaining policy traction, their impacts on human capital remain underexplored. We address this gap using a novel panel of 1037 renewable energy projects (1981–2021) linked to the education component of the Community Well-Being Index (CWB), a standardized measure (0–100) of high school and post-secondary attainment. Employing augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) alongside spatial models, we find that renewable projects increase education scores by an average of 6.11 percentage points. However, Indigenous communities see markedly smaller gains, up to 12 points lower in spatial regressions with one AIPW model estimating a −58.18-point effect, indicating major inequities. Community-owned solar and municipally managed projects yield the strongest positive spillovers. Geographically weighted regressions reveal stark spatial disparities: Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan outperform, while northern and Indigenous-majority areas lag. Education outcomes also scale with population size, pointing to local infrastructure effects. By combining causal inference, spatial analysis, and equity metrics, this study shows that without targeted policy, the energy transition risks deepening existing regional and social disparities. We advocate for culturally responsive, place-based energy policy.