Handling the Hegemon: Permissiveness, Ideas, and Armenia's Limited Hedging in the Face of Russian Assertiveness

Abstract Against neorealist predictions, small states adopt strategies other than balancing or bandwagoning vis-à-vis dominant powers. However, hedging strategies are difficult in regional systems dominated by assertive hegemons. Based on a neoclassical realist framework, we argue that the interaction between systemic constraints and those domestic ideas used to interpret hegemonic behavior can produce limited hedging, characterized by U-turns and haphazard alignment on the part of the smaller power. We illustrate these dynamics in a case study on Armenian foreign policy. While Russian assertiveness set tight parameters for Armenia's foreign policy that made a fully fledged hedging strategy impossible, it did not produce only bandwagoning either. Instead, Serzh Sargsyan's pragmatic ideas led Armenia to bandwagon, where doing otherwise would undermine Russia's strategic interests. Where Sargsyan did not anticipate an encroachment of these interests, Armenia partially balanced against Russia. This led to a process of “nervous” anticipation of Russian assertiveness in constant need of correction and adaptation, which accounts for at times erratic foreign policies.