Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Method in Forcasting Damage Bottles of Production Badak Branded PT Pabrik Es Siantar

Forecasting is the initial part of a decision-making process of a magnitude, such as the demand for one or more products in the coming period. There are several methods that can be used in forecasting one of which is Exponential Smoothing which is used to predict the future by conducting a smoothing process that produces less forecast data error value. In the late 1950s, Robert G Brown modified Exponential Smoothing to Double Exponential Smoothing One Parameter of Brown which is a forecast method used to overcome the differences that arise between actual data and forecast values when there is a trend element in the data plot. In this study will be explained how the steps will be taken in predicting bottle damage in the production of branded beverages Badak PT. Pabrik Es Siantar with Double Exponential Smoothing One Parameter of Brown Method. The data used is the amount of damage to Badak branded bottles from August 2019 to August 2020 in krak units. Based on the data plot shows the presence of trend elements in the data plot, so it can be done data analysis with Double Exponential Smoothing One Parameter of Brown. After analysis and discussion, it was concluded that the best α parameter is 0.3 with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 6.18% and produces a model of forecast equation .