Predicting Species Distribution and Conserving Rosewood Tree Under Global Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract Aniba rosiodora Ducke, an Amazonian species, is valued for its essential oil rich in linalool, which is widely used in fine perfumery. Due to this, it has been overexploited and recognized as a threatened species. Despite efforts to maintain their genetic variability, there are few quotes about their behavior in the face of climate change. This study uses species distribution modeling (SDM) to project its geographic distribution in future scenarios (2009-2019) with projections for SSP245 (less pessimistic) and SSP585 (more pessimistic) for 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100, based on 19 bioclimatic and 14 edaphic variables in South America. The results indicate that the distribution of rosewood trees is mainly influenced by temperature and precipitation, and the analyzed scenarios indicate a reduction of the areas with environmental suitability, especially in the Amazon, Caatinga, and Atlantic Forest. Strategies should be planned to ensure the conservation and genetic variability of the species.