CENTRAL ASIA AT RISK: IS WAR WITH AFGHANISTAN POSSIBLE?

Central Asia, which has historically served as a buffer between major geopolitical forces, is once again at the epicenter of a potential crisis. The rise to power of the “Taliban” movement in Afghanistan in 2021 has not only changed the balance of power in the region but also created new challenges for neighboring states and called into question the ongoing process of Afghanistan's integration into the Central Asian regional space. The threat of escalation of the conflict on Afghanistan's northern borders, where ethnic minorities are concentrated and radical groups operate, threatens the stability of all of Central Asia. However, answering the question of the possibility of a full-scale war between the countries of the region and Afghanistan requires a comprehensive analysis that goes beyond simplified scenarios. On the one hand, the destabilizing factors are obvious. The ideological proximity of some Afghan groups to radical movements in Central Asia, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan* (IMU) or “ISIS-K”* affiliates “Jamaat Ansarullah”*, creates conditions for the crossborder spread of violence. In addition, internal instability in Afghanistan, economic collapse and humanitarian crisis may push the “Taliban” to export instability in search of resources or political leverage. On the other hand, there are restraining mechanisms. Firstly, the “Taliban” itself is interested in international legitimacy, which limits its support for openly terrorist actions outside Afghanistan. Secondly, the Central Asian countries, despite their vulnerability, are strengthening cooperation with Russia and China in the security sphere. Thirdly, the ethnic and political fragmentation of Afghanistan makes a large-scale offensive in the north unlikely – the “Taliban” are forced to concentrate on maintaining power within the country. Institutional mechanisms, in particular the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), as well as the Russian 201st military base in Tajikistan, play an important role in ensuring regional security. These instruments, combining preventive diplomacy and military deterrence, significantly reduce the risks of a large-scale conflict.