Вплив сонячної активності на санітарний стан лісів

The article presents the results of a comprehensive study on the impact of solar activity, expressed by the Wolf number, on the sanitary condition of forest ecosystems in Ukraine amid climate change and global environmental transformations. The primary aim of the study is to determine the nature of both direct and delayed relationships between the solar activity index and various categories of forest mortality, considering accompanying climatic, biotic, and anthropogenic factors. The scientific novelty lies in the application of lag analysis with a time delay of up to three years, enabling the assessment of inertial responses of forest biocenoses to changes in cosmic factors. The methodological foundation of the research involved statistical analysis of long-term data (1961–2023), including the calculation of Pearson correlation coefficients between the Wolf number, climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, hydrothermal coefficient), CO2 emissions, and categories of forest damage (insects, diseases, adverse weather conditions, fires, and other causes). The results indicate the absence of statistically significant linear relationships between the Wolf number and climatic indicators. However, strong correlations were identified with the sanitary condition of forests: notably, a significant negative correlation between the Wolf number and forest mortality caused by insects (r = –0.74), as well as positive lag correlations with diseases (r = 0.79) and adverse weather conditions (r = 0.87) at approximately a two-year delay. Additionally, a moderate positive association was found between forest mortality and CO2 emissions, suggesting a potential feedback effect of degradation processes on the carbon cycle. The study’s findings confirm the importance of incorporating extraterrestrial (astrophysical) factors into ecological monitoring systems and adaptation planning to preserve the resilience of forest ecosystems under climate change conditions. The practical significance of the work lies in the potential use of the obtained data to enhance forest resource management, improve risk forecasting of forest mortality, and develop adaptation strategies addressing global environmental challenges.