Green hydrogen application within the EU: green ammonia adoption in agriculture : a quantitative method approach

This thesis investigates a use-case of green hydrogen and ammonia via analysing the adoption potential of green anhydrous ammonia as a sustainable fertiliser within the Romanian agricultural sector, situated within the broader context of the European green transition and circular economy objectives. A financial analysis was also deployed to assess the potential market size of green ammonia as sustainable fertiliser in the agricultural sector in Romania and at EU level. Romania was selected due to the agricultural significance in the EU context and structural similarity to other Eastern and Southern European farming regions. The study used a quantitative survey methodology targeting 52 key stakeholders including farmers, traders, processors, and retailers. This research empirically assesses the current familiarity and interest of the stakeholders in this sustainable alternative. It explores the perceived benefits, such as environmental improvements and market differentiation, alongside significant barriers like high initial costs, supply availability concerns, and technical knowledge gaps. Statistical analyses, including regression and decision tree modelling, reveal that while familiarity is currently limited, interest in adoption is notably high across all stakeholder groups. Among farmers, key predictors of interest include the perceived importance of sustainability, familiarity with the technology, and concerns regarding financial risk. The study concludes that more support is necessary in form of financial incentives and technical training to facilitate the transition to adopting sustainable fertilisers. This is also backed by current EU policies like CBAM, F2F and CAP. These findings offer crucial empirical insights into the readiness of the agricultural value chain for green ammonia adoption in Romania, providing actionable data-driven recommendations for policymakers and businesses aiming to foster sustainable agricultural practices. Moreover, the potential agricultural market demand per year [at EU level of more than EUR 1 bln. using a conservative approach at an adoption level of 15% and at Romania level of EUR 160 million when considering a market penetration of green ammonia as sustainable fertilisers] represents a strong economic incentive for stakeholders across the green ammonia supply chain, proving the potential of this green hydrogen application within the EU.