Willingness To Pay For Mitigating Harmful Algal Blooms In Lake Champlain: Evidence From Double-Hurdle Model And Sense Of Place Analyses

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), exacerbated by climate change and nutrient-rich agricultural runoff, continue to impair public health, property values, and recreation across freshwater ecosystems, including Vermont’s Lake Champlain. In response, Vermont enacted Act 64 in 2015 to reduce phosphorus loading into the lake, yet a funding gap within the Clean Water Fund has hampered its full implementation in meeting Total Maximum Daily Load standards (TMDLs). This thesis investigates Vermonters' willingness to pay (WTP) for HAB mitigation through water bill and vehicle registration fees, using data from the Center for Rural Studies’ Vermonter Poll to inform econometric analyses. The goal is to assess whether public funding could viably bridge the financial resources need to respond and which demographic and geographic populations are most supportive of this policy.Chapter 1 utilizes a Double-Hurdle model with Binary Logistic and OLS Linear regressions to evaluate how demographic indicators predict WTP across four survey years (2014, 2015, 2020, & 2023). The findings identify significant predictors of WTP and estimate the maximum revenue that could be generated if average WTP values were legislatively enacted as fees. These results inform how policy mechanisms might be structured to align with public support for reducing phosphorus loads in Lake Champlain. Chapter 2 builds on the first by incorporating geospatial analysis to explore how Objective Sense of Place (SoP) and spatial discounting influence WTP, including data from an additional survey year in 2024. Three Double-Hurdle models compare the predictive power of demographic, geographic, and combined variables. The analysis reveals that spatial proximity to Lake Champlain significantly affects residents’ WTP, suggesting that policy engagement and financial contributions are closely tied to lived geographic experience. This research underscores the importance of integrating spatial awareness into environmental finance strategies and contributes to understanding the socio-ecological dynamics behind public investment in water quality.