Are We Driving Toward Equity? Exploring The Impact Of Different Electric Vehicle Transition Scenarios On Exposure And Health

This study undertakes a national analysis to evaluate the impact of electric vehicle (EV) adoption on air quality and environmental justice across US communities. Using high-resolution, census-block-level forecasts, the project examines how EVs and internal combustion vehicles (ICVs) will affect near-road emissions exposure and answers the following question: How does fleet electrification of different vehicle classes impact health and equity?Traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) is a significant public health and environmental justice concern in the US, with well-documented links to disease and mortality. Research shows that people of color and low-income people are more likely to be burdened with high vehicle emissions and that decreasing overall emissions does not make disparities disappear. Medium and Heavy-duty vehicles (MDVs and HDVs), which are more likely to be diesel-powered, make up a disproportionate share of vehicle emissions and disparity for being such a small fraction of traffic. Despite this reality, the vast majority of research examining nationwide electrification continues to concentrate on light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs). Additionally, studies find that air quality varies within a short distance of roadways, a growing fraction of the US population lives near busy roadways, and the spatial resolution of analysis affects estimated equity outcomes. Most studies assessing the impacts of electric vehicles rely on chemical transport modeling, which often lacks the necessary resolution to effectively evaluate the effects of electric vehicles on equity. Higher resolution methods are needed. This project, for the first time, evaluates changes in near-road emissions exposure and equity on a national scale. Exposure equity will be analyzed throughout the transition to electric vehicles over multiple dimensions including geographical distribution (as in previous studies), race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. By incorporating MDVs and HDVs, these results will also illuminate how contributions from different vehicle classes are likely to contribute to exposure over time as EV fractions rise and emission control technology of ICVs becomes more widespread with fleet turnover. Lastly, this study introduces a new methodology for estimating public health impacts and provides national-level effects of electrification. Insights from this study will provide directions for additional interventions that could be evaluated for their potential in further TRAP reductions.