Complex Currents: Reframing Water Security Through An Interdisciplinary Bayesian Network Analysis Of Conflict And Cooperation In Transboundary Water Basins (1948-2008)

Addressing water security within transboundary river basins poses unique challenges and opportunities where conflict and cooperation directly shape regional stability. Investigating these tipping points remains crucial toward building inclusive responses to water scarcity; however, their intricacies remain too nuanced for a single domain of study. Indeed, conflict and cooperation are fraught with asymmetrical power balances, fragmented and contested concepts, overflowing borders and boundaries from competing histories, perspectives and sometimes even identities. As such, this research advocates for methodological pluralism, a practice of incorporating an interdisciplinary approach to both theory and methods, to better understand drivers of conflict and cooperation in transboundary river basins, situated in their complexities. This conceptual scaffolding manifests through complex adaptive systems, regional security complex theory, and critical systems thinking, which shapes the questions, assumptions and interpretations of this study’s data. This research applies Bayesian network analysis to the International Water Events Database 1948-2008 (Transboundary Freshwater Diplomacy Database, Oregon State University) to explore how issue types, geography, and time shape interaction outcomes (conflict, neutral cooperation). Four research questions guide this study:(1.) How do interaction outcomes (conflict, cooperation, neutral) change based on issue type (hydroelectric dams, borders, flood management, etc.)? (2.) How do these outcomes impact water security factors, namely water quality and quantity? (3.) How does complexity within geography and time shape interaction outcomes? (4.) How do interdisciplinary frameworks such as complex adaptive systems, regional security complex theory, and critical systems thinking help us better understand water security? The findings suggest that Bayesian modeling is a useful tool for revealing probabilistic relationships between interaction outcomes and issue type, showcasing patterns for potential intervention strategies. Water quantity and quality demonstrate causal relationships between conflict and cooperation, respectively. Added complexity within geographic and temporal dimensions greatly increases the model’s overall precision and reliability, indicating the historical implications and constraints fordiplomacy efforts. Ultimately, this variance highlights the need for complex frameworks that match the dimensionality of water security. Without multiple and/or interdisciplinary components, the operationalization of these discoveries remains insufficient for policymaking.Although there is no single driver of conflict and cooperation within river basins, understanding the factors that influence water security has profound implications on pathways toward collaboration and peace. Transboundary water communities traverse state boundaries, and their very existence presents an imperative for strategic shared governance and management. In the face of growing concerns of resource scarcity, addressing water security challenges remains paramount.