The purpose of an estimator is what it does: Misspecification, estimands, and over-identification

In over-identified models, misspecification -- the norm rather than exception -- fundamentally changes what estimators estimate. Different estimators imply different estimands rather than different efficiency for the same target. A review of recent applications of generalized method of moments in the American Economic Review suggests widespread acceptance of this fact: There is little formal specification testing and widespread use of estimators that would be inefficient were the model correct, including the use of "hand-selected" moments and weighting matrices. Motivated by these observations, we review and synthesize recent results on estimation under model misspecification, providing guidelines for transparent and robust empirical research. We also provide a new theoretical result, showing that Hansen's J-statistic measures, asymptotically, the range of estimates achievable at a given standard error. Given the widespread use of inefficient estimators and the resulting researcher degrees of freedom, we thus particularly recommend the broader reporting of J-statistics.

Publication Details

Journal
arXiv (Cornell University)
Published
2025-08-18
Primary Topic
Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
Type
article
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article

The purpose of an estimator is what it does: Misspecification, estimands, and over-identification

arXiv (Cornell University)
Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
article

The purpose of an estimator is what it does: Misspecification, estimands, and over-identification

article en

Abstract

In over-identified models, misspecification -- the norm rather than exception -- fundamentally changes what estimators estimate. Different estimators imply different estimands rather than different efficiency for the same target. A review of recent applications of generalized method of moments in the American Economic Review suggests widespread acceptance of this fact: There is little formal specification testing and widespread use of estimators that would be inefficient were the model correct, including the use of "hand-selected" moments and weighting matrices. Motivated by these observations, we review and synthesize recent results on estimation under model misspecification, providing guidelines for transparent and robust empirical research. We also provide a new theoretical result, showing that Hansen's J-statistic measures, asymptotically, the range of estimates achievable at a given standard error. Given the widespread use of inefficient estimators and the resulting researcher degrees of freedom, we thus particularly recommend the broader reporting of J-statistics.

arXiv (Cornell University)
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Openalex Percentile: Top 71%
Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
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