Accelerated lowland thermokarst development revealed by UAS photogrammetric surveys in the Stordalen mire, Abisko, Sweden

Abstract. The estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from permafrost soils is challenging, as organic matter propensity to decompose depends on factors such as soil pH, temperature, and redox conditions. Over lowland permafrost soils, these conditions are directly related to the microtopography and evolve with physical degradation, i.e., lowland thermokarst development (i.e., a local collapse of the land surface due to ice-rich permafrost thaw). A dynamic quantification of thermokarst development – still poorly constrained – is therefore a critical prerequisite for predictive models of permafrost carbon balance in these areas. This requires high-resolution mapping, as lowland thermokarst development induces fine-scale spatial variability (~50 – 100 cm). Here we provide such a quantification, updated for the Stordalen mire in Abisko, Sweden for the Stordalen mire, Abisko, Sweden (68°21'20"N 19°02'38"E), which displays a gradient from well-drained stable palsas to inundated fens, which have undergone ground subsidence. We produced RGB orthomosaics and digital elevation models from very high resolution (10 cm) unoccupied aircraft system (UAS) photogrammetry as well as a spatially continuous map of soil electrical conductivity (EC) based on electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements. We classified the land cover following the degradation gradient and derived palsa loss rates. Our findings confirm that topography is an essential parameter for determining the evolution of palsa degradation, enhancing the overall accuracy of the classification from 41 % to 77 %, with the addition of slope allowing the detection of the early stages of degradation. We show a clear acceleration of degradation for the period 2019 – 2021, with a decrease in palsa area of 0.9 – 1.1 %·a‑1 (% reduction per year relative to the entire mire) compared to previous estimates of ~0.2 %·a‑1 (1970 – 2000) and ~0.04 %·a‑1 (2000 – 2014). EMI data show that this degradation leads to an increase in soil moisture, which in turn likely decreases organic carbon geochemical stability and potentially increases methane emissions. With a palsa loss of 0.9 – 1.1 %·a‑1, we estimate accordingly that surface degradation at Stordalen might lead to a pool of 12 metric tons of organic carbon exposed annually for the topsoil (23 cm depth), of which ~25 % is mineral-interacting organic carbon. Likewise, average annual emissions would increase from ~ 7.1 g‑C·m‑2·a-1 in 2019 to ~ 7.3 g‑C·m‑2·a‑1 in 2021 for the entire mire, i.e., an increase of ~1.3 %·a-1. As topography changes due to lowland thermokarst are fine-scaled and thus not possible to detect from satellite images, circumpolar up-scaling assessments are challenging. By extending the monitoring we have conducted as part of this study to other lowland areas, it would be possible to assess the spatial variability of palsa degradation/thermokarst formation rates and thus improve estimates of net ecosystem carbon dynamics.