Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Kaduna North and Their Implications for Water Resources

Rainfall and temperature variability can impact the availability of water resources for agricultural and domestic use. This study examined the trends in rainfall and temperature, as well as their implications for water resource management. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) provided the meteorological data used in this study. The precipitation concentration index (PCI), rainfall anomaly index (RAI), and coefficient of variation (CV) were used to assess rainfall variability. The Mann-Kendall (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods were employed to identify trends in temperature and rainfall. The results showed that rainfall and temperature had very low variability in Kaduna North, with CVs of 0.08 and 0.012, respectively. According to the RAI, 2013 was identified as the driest year, with RAI values of -6.075, while 2010 was the wettest, with RAI values of 7.913. The PCI indicated that annual rainfall in Kaduna North LGA is characterized by high and moderate concentration levels, with values of 71.0% and 29%, respectively. Using conventional methods, the rainfall experienced a nonsignificant decreasing trend (MK: -1.05, MMK: -1.53, p > 0.05), while the mean temperature increased significantly (MK: 1.97, MMK: 2.45, p < 0.05). However, the innovative trend analysis revealed a significant decrease in rainfall (SITA: -2.540, p < 0.05) and a significant increase in the mean temperature (SITA: 0.007, p < 0.05). Findings highlight risks of water scarcity and the need for adaptive management. Therefore, the study recommends implementing adequate water conservation measures to address the declining water resources, especially rainfall, and increasing awareness about the challenges posed by this decline.