Data-Driven Abdominal Phenotypes of Type 2 Diabetes in Lean, Overweight, and Obese Cohorts

Purpose: Although elevated BMI is a well-known risk factor for type 2 diabetes, the disease's presence in some lean adults and absence in others with obesity suggests that detailed body composition may uncover abdominal phenotypes of type 2 diabetes. With AI, we can now extract detailed measurements of size, shape, and fat content from abdominal structures in 3D clinical imaging at scale. This creates an opportunity to empirically define body composition signatures linked to type 2 diabetes risk and protection using large-scale clinical data. Approach: To uncover BMI-specific diabetic abdominal patterns from clinical CT, we applied our design four times: once on the full cohort (n = 1,728) and once on lean (n = 497), overweight (n = 611), and obese (n = 620) subgroups separately. Briefly, our experimental design transforms abdominal scans into collections of explainable measurements through segmentation, classifies type 2 diabetes through a cross-validated random forest, measures how features contribute to model-estimated risk or protection through SHAP analysis, groups scans by shared model decision patterns (clustering from SHAP) and links back to anatomical differences (classification). Results: The random-forests achieved mean AUCs of 0.72-0.74. There were shared type 2 diabetes signatures in each group; fatty skeletal muscle, older age, greater visceral and subcutaneous fat, and a smaller or fat-laden pancreas. Univariate logistic regression confirmed the direction of 14-18 of the top 20 predictors within each subgroup (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that abdominal drivers of type 2 diabetes may be consistent across weight classes.