Intelligent Decoupling of Hydrological Effects in Han River Cascade Dam System: Spatial Heterogeneity Mechanisms via an LSTM-Attention-SHAP Interpretable Framework

The construction of cascade dam systems profoundly reshapes river hydrological processes, yet the analysis of their spatial heterogeneity effects has long been constrained by the mechanistic deficiencies and interpretability limitations of traditional mechanistic models. Focusing on the middle-lower Han River (a 652 km reach regulated by seven dams) as a representative case, this study develops an LSTM-Attention-SHAP interpretable framework to achieve, for the first time, intelligent decoupling of dam-induced hydrological effects and mechanistic analysis of spatial differentiation. Key findings include the following: (1) The LSTM model demonstrates exceptional predictive performance of water level and flow rate in intensively regulated reaches (average Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE = 0.935 at Xiangyang, Huangzhuang, and Xiantao stations; R2 = 0.988 for discharge at Xiantao Station), while the attention mechanism effectively captures sensitive factors such as the abrupt threshold (>560 m3/s) in the Tangbai River tributary; (2) Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values reveal spatial heterogeneous dam contributions: the Cuijiaying Dam increases discharge at Xiangyang station (mean SHAP +0.22) but suppresses water level at Xiantao station (mean SHAP −0.15), whereas the Wangfuzhou Dam shows a stable negative correlation with Xiangyang water levels (mean SHAP −0.18); (3) dam operations induce cascade effects through altered channel storage capacity. These findings provide spatially adaptive strategies for flood risk zoning and ecological operations in globally intensively regulated rivers such as the Yangtze and Mekong.