Radiation-Induced Lymphopenia Is a Causal Mediator of Survival After Chemoradiation Therapy for Esophagus Cancer

PURPOSE: Radiation-induced lymphopenia (RIL) is common during chemoradiation therapy. Severe lymphopenia is associated with reduced survival. Proton beam therapy (PBT), with its substantially more compact dose distributions, spares circulating lymphocytes and immune organs at risk to a greater extent than photon therapy. Recent studies comparing PBT to photon radiation therapy, specifically intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for esophageal cancer (EC), showed that the incidence of grade 4 RIL (G4RIL) is significantly reduced among patients receiving PBT for EC. However, whether the extent of this reduction has a direct causative link with improved survival is unknown. This study applies causal mediation analysis to answer this question. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We retrospectively assessed 734 patients treated with concurrent chemoradiation therapy for biopsy-proven EC from 2004 to 2017. To address the potential for bias in the choice of radiation modality, propensity score analysis was used to evaluate and reduce imbalances between the PBT and IMRT cohorts. Causal mediation analysis was applied to decompose the total effect of radiation modality on overall survival (OS) into indirect (mediated through G4RIL) and direct effects. RESULTS: We found that PBT was associated with a significantly lower incidence of G4RIL and prolonged OS compared with IMRT (odds ratio, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.28-0.60; CONCLUSIONS: G4RIL was found to mediate survival; however, a statistically significant direct effect of PBT on survival was not observed. In other words, the statistical significance of survival benefit from protons over photons in this EC cohort was lost in the absence of G4RIL risk reduction.