Editor's Choice – Prognostic Factors and Models to Predict Mortality Outcomes in Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease: A Systematic Review

Objective: Predicting adverse outcomes in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a complex task owing to the heterogeneity in patient and disease characteristics. This systematic review aimed to identify prognostic factors and prognostic models to predict mortality outcomes in patients with PAD Fontaine stage I – III or Rutherford category 0 – 4. Data Sources: PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched to identify studies examining individual prognostic factors or studies aiming to develop or validate a prognostic model for mortality outcomes in patients with PAD. Review Methods: Information on study design, patient population, prognostic factors, and prognostic model characteristics was extracted, and risk of bias was evaluated. Results: Sixty nine studies investigated prognostic factors for mortality outcomes in PAD. Over 80 single prognostic factors were identified, with age as a predictor of death in most of the studies. Other common factors included sex, diabetes, and smoking status. Six studies had low risk of bias in all domains, and the remainder had an unclear or high risk of bias in at least one domain. Eight studies developed or validated a prognostic model. All models included age in their primary model, but not sex. All studies had similar discrimination levels of > 70%. Five of the studies on prognostic models had an overall high risk of bias, whereas two studies had an overall unclear risk of bias. Conclusion: This systematic review shows that a large number of prognostic studies have been published, with heterogeneity in patient populations, outcomes, and risk of bias. Factors such as sex, age, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking are significant in predicting mortality risk among patients with PAD Fontaine stage I – III or Rutherford category 0 – 4.