Moderating effect of project size on the relationship between risk management and project performance of county-funded construction projects

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate the moderating effect of project size on the relationship between risk management and project performance in county-funded construction projects in Nakuru County, Kenya, with the aim of understanding how project scale influences the effectiveness of risk management strategies. Theoretical Framework: The study is grounded in the Theory of Constraints (TOC) and its project management application through Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM). These frameworks provide a foundation for understanding how project constraints and bottlenecks affect performance, particularly in relation to project size and risk management effectiveness. Method: The research adopted a pragmatic philosophy with a mixed-methods approach, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods. The study employed a predictive research design with a sample of 198 construction projects and 314 stakeholders, including contractors, project engineers, and managers. Data was collected through structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. Results and Discussion: The findings revealed that project size significantly moderates the relationship between risk management and project performance, accounting for an additional 2.9% variance in project performance (ΔR² = .029, p < .001). Larger projects demonstrated a more pronounced impact of risk management practices on performance outcomes, requiring more sophisticated coordination mechanisms and comprehensive risk management approaches. Research Implications: The study provides crucial insights for construction project stakeholders in the public sector, suggesting the need for scalable risk management strategies that adapt to project size. The findings inform policy development for risk management implementation in county-funded construction projects, emphasizing the importance of size-appropriate risk management approaches. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by examining the specific context of county-funded construction projects in Kenya, offering novel insights into how project size moderates risk management effectiveness. The research provides practical value through its emphasis on scalable risk management strategies and policy implications for public sector construction projects.