Radical right advance and party system change: the 2024 Portuguese snap elections

The 2024 general elections triggered an unprecedented shift in the Portuguese party system. The radical right skyrocketed from 12 to 50 MPs precisely as the country celebrated 50 years since the overthrow of a right-wing dictatorship. Corruption scandals prompted snap elections, but the main parties experienced some of their worst results in history. The centre-right witnessed a bittersweet and narrow victory, and in the resounding defeat of the centre-left there is more than meets the eye. The closely contested election was marked by the radical right’s breakthrough and the breakdown of the de facto two-party system. The driving force behind this party system change seems to be the supply side of party competition. Despite government formation remaining within the realm of conventional formulas, it is unclear whether the cordon sanitaire between mainstream and radical right will falter or damage the chances of executive survival