Expert views on carbon pricing in the developing world

Dozens of governments across the developing world have adopted or are actively considering a variety of carbon pricing policies, but why policymakers prefer some policy designs over others remains uncertain. We argue that expert assessments of carbon pricing primarily center on economic efficiency and distributional concerns, which in turn influence perceptions of technical efficacy and political feasibility. Leveraging a unique conjoint experiment with carbon pricing experts in developing countries, we examine how aspects of policy design influence effectiveness and feasibility, as well as how experts weigh these factors against each other. Design choices that alter the costs and benefits of carbon pricing affect perceptions of the policy's effectiveness and feasibility, often in opposing directions. Experts are split over which goal is more important overall, preferring political feasibility when distributing costs but weighing effectiveness and feasibility similarly when distributing benefits. Our findings highlight the challenge of balancing the ambition and political risk of pricing carbon in a developing country context.