Catching the train to transition : Creation and analysis of hypothetical future scenarios of German passenger railroads till 2050

Transforming the German railway system is essential for achieving national climate targets and advancing a sustainable energy transition. This thesis develops 5 contrasting explorative scenarios for the future of passenger rail in Germany up to 2050, focusing on energy use, emissions and passenger capacity. The aim is to explore how different pathways might affect both environmental sustainability and social justice. A qualitative scenario methodology was used, based on secondary data and literature analysis, incorporating major global and national trends in climate policy, technology and mobility behaviour. The five scenarios: Sustainable Success, Business as Usual, Tech-Driven Growth, Fragmented Failure and Reclaimed Rail, reflect diverging societal values and political choices. Sustainable Success presents a coordinated, well-funded transformation achieving both climate goals and equity goals through electrification and strong public investment. Business as Usual warns of stagnation due to policy delays and underinvestment. Tech-Driven Growth imagines a high tech but socially unequal system, where innovation advances but access remains limited. Fragmented Failure illustrates a breakdown driven by disconnection, low trust and poor coordination. Reclaimed Rail highlights local and regional efforts to drive change from below, offering hope but also revealing the limits of decentralised action without national support. These scenarios together underline that technology alone cannot deliver a sustainable rail future. Public trust, fair access and wages, and coherent policy are equally crucial for succeeding. The rail system must be understood not just as infrastructure, but as a public service contributing to social inclusion and climate action. The study concludes that reaching climate goals is requiring strong, inclusive leadership and investment at all levels. Whilst the absence of primary data and emissions modelling limits some aspects of the research, the scenario approach offers valuable insights into the range of possible outcomes and supports more holistic transport planning. The findings are especially relevant for policymakers, planners and researchers aiming to align rail development with a just and sustainable energy transition.