Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming

Tropical rainforests rely on their root systems to access moisture stored in soil during wet periods for use during dry periods. When this root zone soil moisture is inadequate to sustain a forest ecosystem, they transition to a savanna-like state, losing their native structure and functions. Yet the influence of climate change on ecosystem's root zone soil moisture storage and the impact on rainforest ecosystems remain uncertain. This study assesses the future state of rainforests and the risk of forest-to-savanna transitions in South America and Africa under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Using a mass-balance-based empirical understanding of root zone storage capacity (Sr), defined as the maximum volume of root zone soil moisture per unit area accessible to vegetation's roots for transpiration, we project how rainforest ecosystems will respond to future climate changes. We find that under the end-of-the-21st-century climate, nearly one-third of the total forest area will be influenced by climate change. As the climate warms, forests will require a larger Sr than they do under the current climate to sustain their ecosystem structure and functions, making them more susceptible to water limitations. Furthermore, warming beyond 1.5–2 °C will significantly elevate the risk of a forest–savanna transition. In the Amazon, the forest area at risk of such a transition grows by about 1.7–5.8 times in size compared to the immediate lower-warming scenario (e.g. SSP2-4.5 compared to SSP1-2.6). In contrast, the risk growth in the Congo is less substantial, ranging from 0.7–1.7 times. These insights underscore the urgent need to limit the rise in global surface temperature below the Paris Agreement to conserve rainforest ecosystems and associated ecosystem services.