Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate-ice sheet modelling

The configuration of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum differed to the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the reasons for this are not yet fully understood. These differences likely contributed to the varied deglaciation pathways experienced following the glacial maxima and may have had consequences for the interglacial sea level rise. To understand the differences between the North American Ice Sheet at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima (21 and 140 ka), we perform two perturbed-physics ensembles of 62 simulations using a coupled atmosphere–ice sheet model, FAMOUS-ice, with prescribed surface ocean conditions, in which the North American and Greenland ice sheets are dynamically simulated with the Glimmer ice sheet model. We apply an implausibility metric to find ensemble members that match reconstructed ice extent and volumes at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima. We use a resulting set of “plausible” parameters to perform sensitivity experiments to decompose the role of climate forcings (orbit, greenhouse gases) and initial conditions on the final ice sheet configurations. This confirms that the initial ice sheet conditions used in the model are extremely important in determining the difference in final ice volumes between both periods due to the large effect of the ice–albedo feedback. In contrast to evidence of a smaller Penultimate North American Ice Sheet, our results show that the climate boundary conditions at these glacial maxima, if considered in isolation, imply a larger Penultimate Glacial Maximum North American Ice Sheet than at the Last Glacial Maximum by around 6 m sea level equivalent. This supports the notion that the growth of the ice sheet prior to the glacial maxima is key in explaining the differences in North American ice volume.