Оцінка вартості та виконання графіків будівництва ключових ядерних реакторів

The nuclear industry is a unique sector that is especially vulnerable to delays. A multitude of impactful factors such as the complexity of design, tight on-site schedules, and a logistically sophisticated end-to-end supply chain, to name just a few, make the entire project highly prone to complications. In 2017, it was estimated that nearly two-thirds of the 55 nuclear plants under construction at that time were behind schedule. Furthermore, since 2010, delays of this nature have been believed to have contributed to an almost 20% increase in the final costs of the projects. This work analyzed recent construction performance of Generation III/III+ nuclear reactor projects, specifically examining AP1000, EPR, and APR1400 technologies. Key performance indicators evaluated included planned versus actual construction times, costs, and capacity construction rates, revealing significant deviations across the analyzed projects. Each nuclear project's performance was quantitatively assessed using the schedule performance ratio, cost performance ratio, and an integrated performance coefficient to comprehensively compare efficiencies across different reactor technologies. Analysis further identified key reasons behind these deviations, such as evolving regulatory environments, safety requirements, project management inefficiencies, supply chain immaturity, and limited skilled workforce availability, which contributed to persistent first of a kind (FOAK) challenges and obscured the anticipated nth of a kind (NOAK) improvements. Based on these findings, recommendations are provided for future research, emphasizing the necessity to apply insights gained from large reactor deployment challenges to the emerging Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technologies.