Моделирование динамики и несущей способности ледяного покрова водоема

The paper presents a computational model for calculating the characteristics of the ice cover of a freshwater reservoir taking into account the effect of snow. The algorithm for calculating the bearing capacity is founded on the formula of central bending, which is based on the representation of the ice cover as an isotropic elastic plate lying on an elastic foundation. The model takes into account the geometric parameters of the applied load, temperature dependencies of the maximum allowable bending stress and the modulus of elasticity of ice. To determine the thickness and temperature of the ice cover, a non-stationary computational model based on the numerical solution of the Stefan problem in a generalized formulation was used. When modeling the dynamics of ice cover, climatic conditions for the cold season were taken into account in the form of dependencies of the average daily values of air temperature, wind speed, air humidity and solar radiation falling on the surface of the reservoir. Calculation data showed a significant impact of snow on reducing the bearing capacity of the ice cover due to a decrease in the thickness of the ice and an increase in its temperature. The results of calculating the thickness, temperature regime and bearing capacity of the ice cover allow us to estimate the safety of ice crossings on the current date based on meteorological data for the previous period of time and to predict the state of the ice cover in the future using meteorological forecasts