USA:s stål- och aluminiumtullar: Konsekvenser för Sveriges industrisektor : En kvantitativ studie av svenska exportvolymer

This study examined the economic consequences of the U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs on Sweden as a small export dependent country. To fulfil the purpose three hypothesis were formulated: 1. that the tariffs would significantly decrease Swedish exports of steel and aluminium 2. that Swedish exports would shift from the U.S. market to the European and other international markets during the tariff period 3. that exchange rate fluctuates between the Swedish krona and major currencies (USD and EUR) would significantly affect Sweden's steel and aluminium export volumes. The analysis was based on a time series regression model with monthly data from 2013-2025 which was retrieved from two governmental institutions Statstics Sweden (SCB) and Riksbanken, the Swedish central bank. The findings of the study showed a statistically significant decrease in steel exports to the U.S. (24,8%) during the tariff period (March 2018 until October 2021). In contrast, aluminium exports increased opposed to our first hypothesis by (17,5 %), which was statistically significant. The results suggested that protectionist trade policies such as tariffs have a considerable impact on the export performance of a small open economy like Sweden. The findings highlight the crucial roles of stable exchange rates and diversified export markets in reducing vulnerability to international trade disruptions.