Values vs Strategy : Exploring the EU’s enlargement policy before and after the Russia-Ukraine war

This study examines whether the European Union’s (EU) decision to grant candidate status toUkraine and Moldova in 2022 marks a broader shift in its enlargement policy. Traditionally,enlargement has been framed as a process driven by a set of core values outlined in theCopenhagen criteria, which set the conditions that candidates and potential applicants must meetto become full members of the EU. However, as the geopolitical climate in Europe has shiftedfollowing Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, questions have been raised whether securityand strategic interests now outweigh the EU’s traditional emphasis on promoting democracy.Applying a comparative case study design together with a theoretical framework based on liberalinstitutionalism and neorealism, this study analyzes two recent candidates, Ukraine and Moldova,alongside two long-standing ones, Serbia and Albania. It examines four key dimensions of EUenlargement policy: values, accession criteria, security and strategic influence. The findingsshow that while democratic values and the strict conditions of the Copenhagen criteria remaincentral to the enlargement process, there is no doubt that the importance of geopolitical alignmenthas grown. Instead of replacing its traditional enlargement framework, the EU seems to beincreasingly taking strategic factors into account as well. This development can also be observedacross both recent and long-standing candidates, where aligning with EU geopolitical objectivesis becoming much more prominent in the accession rhetoric. Overall, the study concludes thatenlargement is evolving into a hybrid instrument that balances between democratic ideals andrising geopolitical factors.