A Study of Special Districts: Research of Financial Indicators as Predictors of Fiscal Distress

Since 1946, Special Purpose Districts (SPDs) have become the most prevalent form of government in the United States. Unfortunately, they fail more often than General Purpose (GP) governments. This study researches the predictability of the Florida State Auditor’s financial condition indicators for SPD financial health and the influence of intergovernmental transfers (IGT) on government financial health. The significance of this research lies in confirming whether a national SPD fiscal distress predictive model can be generalized to a single state. Additionally, the study researched the influence of intergovernmental transfers (IGT) on financial health. The quantitative research design used the Cox regression survival analysis method to analyze a sample population of (n = 253) failed SPD records, representing 71 SPDs from a population of (N = 12,129) financial reports and 1,501 SPDs for the period 2016 through 2022 to determine the predictability of SPD fiscal emergency. The research also used IBM SPSS AMOS to analyze a sample population (n = 9,075) of county, municipal, and SPD financial reports for the same period to determine if IGT had any mediating and moderating influence on financial health. The analysis determined that the national model cannot be generalized and was not predictive of Fiscal Distress and that IGT had no moderating or mediating influence on Fiscal Distress.